Targeting Ridings to Vote Ford Out

With the passing of Bill 212 last week, it’s time to shift focus to getting rid of the Ford government at the polls while still pursuing direct actions such as last Friday’s well attended Critical Mass ride. MPP Joel Harden’s latest e-newsletter indicated the Ford government will be retaining their own contractors to remove 500 metres of the most western section of the Bloor Street bike lane – most likely within The Kingsway where opposition is strongest – and 400 metres of the Yonge Street bike lane by the end of this year. If we are to achieve electoral success, it’s worth identifying which ridings to target.

This November 2024 Critical Mass video by @hope2hope.bsky.social went viral on Bluesky

For this analysis, I would like to thank Kevin Rupasinghe for providing the relevant provincial election data.

During the last election, there were five ridings the PC’s won by fewer than 1000 votes. Note one of them is Etobicoke-Lakeshore which is home to most of the Bloor West Complete Street Extension installed in 2023 and 2024.

While those five ridings would be the easiest ones to win, the following eleven won by 1000 to 2500 votes could also be at play.

Since the PC’s won 83 seats last time, we would need to defeat them in at least 22 ridings to deny them a majority while holding every non-PC seat; meaning the 17 ridings won by fewer than 2500 votes won’t be enough. Therefore, we will need to expand our target to include eighteen ridings won by 2500 to 5000 votes for a total of 34.

Of course, the Ontario PC party will be targeting ridings which their opponents won by narrow margins, so we will need to play some defence. The PC’s were the runner up by fewer than 1000 votes in five ridings, while Humber River-Black Creek saw the PC candidate lose by only 1,094 votes.

The PC’s were in second by 1000 to 2500 votes in six ridings and by 2500 to 5000 votes in seven ridings; bringing the total number of ridings at risk to 19.

While this overview can serve as a starting point for organizing to vote Ford out of office, there are a few caveats to keep in mind. There will always be incumbents who choose not to seek re-election which could create an open field for the challengers. Candidate recruitment by the NDP, Liberals, and Greens can play a role in which certain “star candidates” could change the calculus of which party has the best shot at defeating the PC candidate. Last, but not least, the strategic vote could change depending on whether NDP Leader Marit Stiles or Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie can break away to become “the” default anti PC vote. While I have historically supported the NDP and live in a riding where the PC’s don’t stand a chance, this is the one election where I would encourage strategic voting. Something which Not One Seat has done in 2022 and is in the process of relaunching.

One final point that needs to be made is focusing on bike lanes will be futile for the upcoming provincial election in the ridings we need to target; mostly in Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, and the 905 suburbs. Instead, there is a need to focus on other failures of the Ford government that are relevant to each riding whether it be Highway 413, the Greenbelt, housing, schools, or the healthcare system.

If you want to dive deeper in the 2022-24 Ontario election results, you can consult Kevin's spreadsheet here.